Inbox: Which '24 Draft prospects have best tools for next level? (2024)

We just completed the updated and expanded Draft Top 150, so I have a full-blown case of Draft fever that won't relent for another three months. You can guess where this Pipeline Inbox is headed ...

Aaron is getting at who has a chance to be the best all-around offensive performer at the big league level. West Virginia middle infielder JJ Wetherholt and Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana are the two best pure hitters in this Draft, while Georgia outfielder/third baseman Charlie Condon and Florida first baseman/left-hander Jac Caglianone offer the most usable power.

In terms of total offensive impact, I would rate them in this order: Condon, Caglianone, Bazzana, Wetherholt.

Condon's combination of power, contact and plate discipline is the most impressive to me. Caglianone continues to chase a ton of pitches outside the zone, yet he somehow has cut his strikeout rate to 7 percent this spring! They're both going to hit well in the Majors and could be 40-homer threats.

Bazzana and Wetherholt could contend for big league batting titles one day. Wetherholt's bat-to-ball skills are slightly better but Bazzana gets the edge in terms of power upside. He might hit 25-30 homers per season, while Wetherholt will probably top out at 20-25.

I've been covering the Draft since 1989 and it sort of boggles my mind that was 35 years ago. Young Jonathan Mayo only has been on the Draft beat since 1999. The fewest high schoolers drafted in my time, as well as in the history of the Draft dating to 1965, was seven in 1992 -- starting with Derek Jeter at No. 6 to the Yankees.

The 2024 prep class is underwhelming. There are 30 first-round picks and we have nine high schoolers rated among the top 30 spots on the Draft Top 150. That compares to 13 in 2023, when 11 of the 28 first-rounders and 13 of the top 30 choices were prepsters, and 12 in 2022 versus 13 actual first-rounders that July.

Jackson Prep (Flowood, Miss.) shortstop/outfielder Konnor Griffin and Harvard-Westlake (Studio City, Calif.) shortstop Bryce Rainer are locks to go in the first round this year, and Catholic (Baton Rouge, La.) right-hander William Schmidt likely is too. Saguaro (Scottsdale, Ariz.) left-hander Cam Caminiti, Valley View (Jonesboro, Ark.) outfielder Slade Caldwell and infielders Theo Gillen (Westlake, Austin, Texas) and Kellon Lindsey (Hardee, Wauchula, Fla.) are good bets too. That gets us to seven.

York (Elmhurst, Ill.) righty Ryan Sloan and Elk City (Okla.) southpaw Kash Mayfield are first-round talents, though clubs can get skittish about taking prep pitchers that early. There are divergent opinions on the rest of the hitters, led by Independence (Frisco, Texas) shortstop Wyatt Sanford, and more talented arms such as Centennial (Ankeny, Iowa) righty Joey Oakie and Mt. Lebanon (Pa.) lefty David Shields. My guess is we'll see 8-10 high school first-rounders.

Unquestionably, the White Sox. They've off to a 3-22 start, tied for the worst 25-game start ever, and because they're a larger-revenue team that has a lottery (top six) choice in this year, Draft lottery rules dictate they can't pick higher than 10th in the next Draft.

So even thought the White Sox are the leading candidate to have the worst record in MLB, they won't get an early choice in 2025. The White Sox also own the fifth pick this July in a Draft where three players (Condon, Bazzana, Caglianone) have separated themselves. They won't get a shot at one of the elite talents in either 2024 or 2025, and if they don't hit on the No. 5 choice, it will slow down their rebuild even more.

It's still early for teams to be focusing on specific players or demographics, though that won't prevent Jonathan from unveiling our first full 2024 first-round projection next week. Clubs don't usually draft for need in the first round, yet there's no question that the Red Sox could use more pitching. They lead MLB in ERA but also have one of the thinnest collections of mound prospects in the Minors.

There aren't a lot of pitching candidates who fit at No. 12, however. Arkansas left-hander Hagen Smith and Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns are the consensus two best arms and they won't get close to Boston. East Carolina righty Trey Yesavage belongs right around No. 12 but I suspect he'll be gone too.

There's not another college arm who should go that early. Schmidt and maybe Caminiti could fit in that range but would the Red Sox take a high school pitcher in the upper half of the first round? The last time they did, it didn't work out well with Jay Groome at No. 12 in 2016.

I don't see any way that any of the eight best prospects (Condon, Bazzana, Caglianone, Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz, Texas A&M outfielder Braden Montgomery, Smith, Burns, Wetherholt) can slide to Boston. The best hope might be Griffin, who has the best tools in the Draft but comes with some questions about his bat.